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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd