Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
